Search results for " Weibull Model"

showing 4 items of 4 documents

The Legacy and the Tyranny of Time: Exit and Re-Entry of Sovereigns to International Capital Markets

2018

We use a novel continuous-time Weibull model (without and) with a change-point in the duration dependence parameter to investigate the duration of the exit and re-entry of sovereigns to international capital markets. Relying on annual data for a large panel of countries over the period 1970-2011, we find that, as the reputation of debtor countries as good (bad) borrowers solidifies over time, those episodes are more likely to end - i.e. the "legacy of time". Debtor countries can take advantage of the "benefit of doubt" of creditors during short exit spells. However, when exits are long and the reputation as a bad borrower emerges, no more "complacency" makes it more difficult for them to bo…

Economics and EconometricsGovernment050208 financeHaircutCreditormedia_common.quotation_subject05 social sciencesSettore SECS-P/02 Politica EconomicaDuration dependenceDebtorMonetary economicsInternational capital marketMarket economyAccounting0502 economics and businessEconomicsinternational capital markets re-entry and exit continuous-time Weibull model duration dependence change-point.050207 economicsDuration (project management)FinanceReputationmedia_commonJournal of Money, Credit and Banking
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Global factors, uncertainty, weather conditions and energy prices: On the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycle phases

2020

We investigate the role of global factors in explaining the length of commodity price cycle phases, using a continuous-time Weibull duration model and data for a panel of 33 countries over the period 1980Q1-2015Q4. We find evidence of increasing (constant) positive duration dependence for commodity price booms and busts (normal time spells). Global macroeconomic conditions - in particular, inflation, economic policy uncertainty and monetary policy actions - significantly affect the duration of all commodity price cycle phases. Global environmental conditions also impact the duration of commodity price booms, with a rise in average temperature (rainfall) increasing (reducing) their length. A…

InflationEconomics and Econometrics020209 energymedia_common.quotation_subjectCommodity price cycles Continuous-time Weibull model Global factors05 social sciencesMonetary policySettore SECS-P/02 Politica EconomicaDuration dependence02 engineering and technologyMonetary economicsBoomGeneral Energy13. Climate action8. Economic growth0502 economics and business0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineeringEconomics050207 economicsDuration (project management)Commodity (Marxism)media_commonEnergy Economics
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What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?

2013

This paper assesses the determinants of the length of fiscal consolidation using annual data for 17 industrial countries over the period 1978-2009. Relying on a narrative approach to identify fiscal consolidation episodes, we show that fiscal variables (such as the budget deficit and the level of public debt) and economic factors (such as the degree of openness, the inflation rate, the interest rate and per capita GDP) are crucial for the fiscal consolidation process. Additionally, we employ duration analysis over a set of consolidation spells and find that, as time goes by, the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending is higher. However, the hazard function is not monotonic: indeed, it …

NinthMacroeconomicsEconomics and Econometricsjel:C41Fiscal consolidationsmedia_common.quotation_subjectjel:E62Social Sciencesfiscal consolidations duration analysis Weibull model cubic splines.Monetary economicsGross domestic productConsolidation (business)Weibull modelCubic splinesDebt0502 economics and businessEconomicsOpenness to experience050207 economicsmedia_commonGovernment spending050208 finance05 social sciencesDuration analysi1. No povertySettore SECS-P/02 Politica EconomicaFiscal Consolidation Duration Analysis Weibull Model cubic splines.Interest rateDeficit spendingC41Fiscal consolidation8. Economic growthDuration analysisE62Finance
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Booms, Busts and normal times in the housing market

2015

We assess the existence of duration dependence in the likelihood of an end in housing booms, busts, and normal times. Using data for 20 industrial countries and a continuous-time Weibull duration model, we find evidence of positive duration dependence suggesting that housing market cycles have become longer over the last decades. Then, we extend the baseline Weibull model and allow for the presence of a change-point in the duration dependence parameter.We show that positive duration dependence is present in booms and busts that last less than 26 quarters, but that does not seem to be the case for longer phases of the housing market cycle. For normal times, no evidence of change-points is fo…

Statistics and ProbabilityEconomics and EconometricsHousing booms and bustsSocial SciencesDuration dependenceBoomWeibull modelEconomicsDuration (project management)Baseline (configuration management)Weibull distributionScience & TechnologyActuarial scienceCiências Sociais::Economia e Gestãohousing booms and busts duration analysis Weibull model duration dependence change-pointsSettore SECS-P/02 Politica EconomicaDuration analysis8. Economic growthChange pointsChange-pointsDemographic economics:Economia e Gestão [Ciências Sociais]Statistics Probability and UncertaintyDuration dependenceSocial Sciences (miscellaneous)
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